Fears of Falling Global Fertility
I wish that worry over falling global fertility was not quite so right-wing-coded. I agree there is something troubling about countries that have ceased to reproduce themselves. There is tragedy in how many people don’t end up having the families they desire.
Falling Fertility Rates Across the World
In April, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced that the U.S. fertility rate had fallen to a new low of around 1.6 births per woman — well below the 2.1 that is broadly considered an adequate replacement rate. The European Union average is closer to 1.5, with Germany recently falling below the U.N.’s “ultralow fertility” line of 1.4. South Korea is down to 0.78 births per woman, a rate at which the country will sharply contract over a few generations. The only wealthy country with a fertility rate above the replacement rate is Israel.
Consequences of Shrinkage
It is harder for societies to remain stable as they shrink; South Korea’s demographic crisis has contributed to its recent political turmoil. Growth becomes elusive when populations decline. Fewer adults supporting more retirees is a recipe for discontent.
Lack of Solutions
In practice, we see none of the things that would address these issues. Anti-immigrant sentiment rises, as it has both here and in Europe, and gender relations worsen, as they have in South Korea. People are a source of power, growth is a source of optimism, and shrinking societies fear long-term decline. Russia’s falling birthrates seem to have played some role in President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine.
A New Era of Instability
As countries across the world see their populations fall — some of them quickly — we are entering a new demographic era, and I am skeptical that it will be a stable one.
Conclusion
Any one of these challenges would be plenty on its own. Together, they augur a new and frightening era. I find myself returning to a famous translation of a line from Antonio Gramsci: “The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: Now is the time of monsters.”
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the concern about falling fertility rates?
The concern is that shrinking populations will lead to economic and societal instability, making it difficult for countries to sustain themselves in the long term.
What is the replacement rate?
The replacement rate is the average number of children a woman must have to replace herself and her partner in the next generation. A fertility rate above the replacement rate indicates a growing population, while a rate below the replacement rate indicates a declining population.
Which country has the highest fertility rate above the replacement rate?
Israel has the highest fertility rate above the replacement rate, with an average of 3.2 children per woman.
What is the impact of demographic crisis on countries?
The demographic crisis can have severe consequences for countries, including increased pressure on healthcare and social security systems, a shrinking workforce, and potential long-term economic decline.
Can anything be done to address these concerns?
Yes, countries can adopt policies such as increasing immigration, investing in education and workforce development, and promoting gender equality and family-friendly policies to address the concerns around falling fertility rates.
