A Second Trump Presidency’s Impact on Tech

AI Policy

A Trump presidency likely means a less constrained AI industry. Trump has promised to repeal the Biden administration’s AI executive order, which instructed agencies to create testing standards and guardrails to prevent AI from being used in discriminatory ways. Trump previously signed his own executive order covering AI safety and standards, but it did not touch on discrimination. The second Trump administration will likely deprioritize AI discrimination safeguards and discourage the use of the Defense Production Act to require more transparency, something conservatives have characterized as government overreach.

AI policy is an area where Elon Musk will likely seek to exert his influence, assuming he and Trump remain on good terms. Musk runs xAI and has been critical of incumbent players like OpenAI — a firm he co-founded but later distanced himself from and sued. Musk has supported AI safety measures like California’s controversial and ultimately vetoed SB 1047, and he previously signed a call for a moratorium on major AI developments for safety reasons. But his focus on existential risks has been criticized by some AI researchers as a distraction from more immediate risks like discrimination.

It’s also not yet clear how Trump will handle thorny copyright issues surrounding generative AI, including what information large language models are allowed to train on. AI executives, including Musk, could seek to shape how Trump views the issue in a way that’s favorable to them.

Antitrust

The antitrust enforcers of the Trump administration are expected to take a more lax approach to regulating the tech industry. This could involve reducing the scrutiny of acquisitions and mergers, making it easier for companies like Google, Amazon, Facebook, and Apple to continue their consolidation of the digital landscape.

Kids Online Safety

Trump hasn’t said much about where he stands on this topic or on the leading congressional bill on the subject, the Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA). That bill remains stalled in the House after passing through the Senate (in combination with an update to children’s data privacy law), and it’s not yet clear what could happen in future congressional sessions. Current Republican House leadership has expressed concerns that KOSA could unduly limit speech, so a Democratic House might be more open to giving it floor time, but ultimately, the concerns with the bill don’t fall entirely down partisan lines.

Adam Kovacevich, whose group has opposed KOSA, suggests Democrats should be wary of passing the bill under a Trump presidency — pointing to lead cosponsor Sen. Marsha Blackburn’s (R-TN) comments about protecting kids from transgender content online. “Democrats will have to decide whether they want to hand Trump & MAGA state law enforcers a powerful new censorship tool,” he writes.

Electric Vehicles

Electric vehicle tax credits and other climate-focused policies will likely be in jeopardy under Trump, though that might be somewhat complicated by his connection with Musk, with Tesla standing to gain from EV-friendly policies. Still, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives previously said that Tesla’s “scale and scope … could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment.”

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Nathan Dean sees just a 30 percent chance of continued EV tax credits under Trump. He predicts continued rhetoric that EVs are “a boon to China’s economy,” alongside efforts to replace the tax credits with consumer incentives that could benefit traditional carmakers like General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis.

Semiconductor Policy

Under the Biden administration, Congress passed the bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act, which injected funds into creating a domestic semiconductor production industry — something experts say is a national security necessity and critical to maintaining control over the supply chain for important technologies including medical tech. But Trump called the bill “so bad” during his appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast, and soon after, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said he was open to repealing the law (though he later walked back those comments). Trump can’t undo a law on his own, but he could perhaps instruct his Commerce Department to slow-walk aspects of its rollout.

Crypto

Trump has made significant overtures to the cryptocurrency industry, headlining a major Bitcoin conference this summer and picking up significant support from prominent crypto investors like Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz. With Trump’s election, the industry is likely to get its top wish: the ouster of Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler, whom the industry views as its chief antagonist. Expect more permissive and hands-off regulation of this industry, as Trump has called for making the US a “Bitcoin superpower.”