AI Today and Tomorrow: A Series on the State of AI in HPC and the Path to AGI
Introduction
In response to our readers’ many questions about AI, showing a mix of excitement and concern, we will soon debut a series of monthly articles on the status of AI in the global HPC community and the path toward AGI, artificial general intelligence.
The Series’ Primary Author
The series’ primary author is BigDataWire contributing editor Steve Conway, whose day job is as senior analyst with Intersect360 Research (prior stops at Cray Research and SGI). Steve has closely tracked AI developments for over a decade, leading HPC and AI studies for government agencies around the world, co-authoring with Johns Hopkins University Advanced Physics Laboratory (JHUAPL) an AI primer for senior U.S. military leaders and speaking frequently on AI and related topics.
Approach to the Series
The series doesn’t aim to be definitive; the goal is to lay out a range of current information and opinions on AI for the HPC-AI community to consider. No one has the final take on AI, so I also want to encourage comments and suggestions along the way at [email protected].
Information Sources
The series will rely on three main sources: everything I’ve read and done during the past dozen years; worldwide market research and analysis from our analyst team at Intersect360 research; and above all, the many candid discussions I’ve had in recent months with leading figures in the global HPC and hyperscale communities.
The Current State of AI
Generative AI is popular and useful. It’s really amped up excitement about AI, but it’s early in the game and artificial general intelligence, AGI, is probably decades away by any robust definition. Definitions are one of the challenges we face. There’s no strong consensus definition of AGI, or intelligence itself, or explainability related to today’s main AI methods. I think it’s still useful to talk about the path toward AGI, even if we don’t know exactly what AGI looks like.
The Path to AGI
The major schools of thought on AGI split along the lines of the centuries-old mind/body debate, with some believing that technological progress alone will be enough to get us there and others arguing that a major breakthrough will be needed to endow machines with "mind," consciousness. The Cartesians seem to be in the minority today.
AI in the HPC Community
Nearly all HPC sites are exploring AI and many are starting to use it in production. That’s no secret. But beyond that, it depends on the applications, as it always has with important new technologies in the HPC community. At one end of the spectrum are legacy applications in domains like automotive and aerospace, where results using new technology may need to be validated and recertified, a process that can take years. At the other end are non-mission-critical jobs that can be assigned to AI quickly.
Challenges
Intersect360 Research figures confirm that the AI market is much larger than the HPC market. There’s concern, given the current shortage of GPUs, that processor vendors might bow to the greater buying power of hyperscalers and pay less attention to HPC needs such as FP64. There’s concern HPC sites might have less ability to negotiate prices for new supercomputers. There’s concern that scientific and engineering users might need to learn to do their work on machines designed for AI. A few HPC sites are already far along in that direction.
Conclusion
The series will explore these and other topics in more depth, providing insights and opinions from leading figures in the HPC-AI community. We encourage readers to share their thoughts and questions with us, and we look forward to the discussion that will ensue.
FAQs
Q: What is the goal of the series?
A: The goal is to lay out a range of current information and opinions on AI for the HPC-AI community to consider.
Q: What are the sources of information for the series?
A: The series will rely on three main sources: everything I’ve read and done during the past dozen years; worldwide market research and analysis from our analyst team at Intersect360 research; and above all, the many candid discussions I’ve had in recent months with leading figures in the global HPC and hyperscale communities.
Q: What is the current state of AI?
A: Generative AI is popular and useful, but it’s early in the game and artificial general intelligence, AGI, is probably decades away by any robust definition. Definitions are one of the challenges we face.
Q: What is the path to AGI?
A: The major schools of thought on AGI split along the lines of the centuries-old mind/body debate, with some believing that technological progress alone will be enough to get us there and others arguing that a major breakthrough will be needed to endow machines with "mind," consciousness.
