The Shift towards Cooperation in AI and Geopolitics: A New Era of Diplomacy
The Post-ChatGPT Era: A Gold Rush or Moral Panic?
The post-ChatGPT years in AI discourse have been marked by a mix of record investment and moral panic. In 2023, tech experts, including Elon Musk and Steve Wozniak, published an open letter calling for a six-month moratorium on the training of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4. This has understandably clouded the judgment of political leaders, pushing the geopolitical conversation about AI into some disturbing places.
The Rise of AI Nationalism
At the AI & Geopolitics Project, my research organization at Cambridge University, our analysis clearly shows the increasing trend towards AI nationalism. In 2017, President Xi Jinping announced plans for China to become an AI superpower by 2030. The Chinese "New Generation AI Development Plan" aimed for the country to reach a "world-leading level" of AI innovation by 2025 and become a major AI innovation center by 2030.
The US Response: AI Nationalism vs. Diplomacy
The CHIPs and Science Act of 2022, a US ban on exporting semiconductors, was a direct response to this, designed to advantage US domestic AI capabilities and curtail China. In 2024, following an executive order signed by President Biden, the US Treasury Department also published draft rules to ban or restrict investments in artificial intelligence in China. However, this approach overlooks the importance of diplomacy and cooperation in the development of AI.
Lessons from the Cold War
Those who favor AI nationalism would do well to learn deeper lessons from the Cold War beyond the notion of an arms race. At that time, the United States, while pushing to become the most advanced technological nation, managed to use politics, diplomacy, and statecraft to create a positive and aspirational vision for space exploration. Successive US governments also managed to get support at the UN for a treaty that protected space from nuclearization, specified that no nation could colonize the moon, and ensured that space was "the province of all mankind."
The Shift towards Cooperation in 2025
In 2025, we will start to see a shift back in the direction of cooperation and diplomacy. The AI Summit in France in 2025 will be part of this shift. President Macron is already reframing his event away from a strict "safety" framing of AI risk, and towards one that focuses on the more pragmatic "solutions and standards." In a virtual address to the Seoul Summit, the French president made clear that he intends to address a much broader range of policy issues, including how to actually ensure society benefits from AI.
A New Era of Diplomacy
The UN, recognizing the exclusion of some countries from the debate around AI, has also released plans aimed at a more collaborative global approach. Even the US and China have begun to engage in tentative diplomacy, establishing a bilateral consultation channel on AI in 2024. While the impact of these initiatives remains uncertain, they clearly indicate that, in 2025, the world’s AI superpowers will likely pursue diplomacy over nationalism.
Conclusion
As the world enters 2025, it is crucial that we recognize the importance of cooperation and diplomacy in the development of AI. Rather than viewing AI as a battle to be won, we must work together to harness its potential to create a more positive and cooperative future.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is the impact of the trend towards AI nationalism?
A: The trend towards AI nationalism has led to a focus on national interests and a lack of cooperation and diplomacy in the development of AI.
Q: What is the significance of the AI Summit in France in 2025?
A: The AI Summit in France in 2025 will be part of a shift towards cooperation and diplomacy in AI development, focusing on pragmatic solutions and standards rather than safety risks.
Q: How does the UN plan to address the exclusion of some countries from the AI debate?
A: The UN has released plans aimed at a more collaborative global approach, recognizing the importance of inclusivity in the development of AI.
Q: What are the implications of the US-China bilateral consultation channel on AI?
A: The establishment of the bilateral consultation channel indicates a potential shift towards cooperation and diplomacy between the US and China in the development of AI.
