The Rise and Fall of America’s Economic Security
Over the past two decades, the United States has built an unprecedented arsenal of economic security tools that have anchored U.S. foreign policy. Republican and Democratic administrations have developed a shared understanding of the world and how to pursue America’s interests. Economic security officials have worked across administrations, gradually developing grand ambitions for a global order founded on financial sanctions, export controls, and the development of crucial technologies.
The Disruption
We are about to find out what happens when those structures are controlled by a disruptive administration – and what happens when that administration inherits the weapons without the accompanying sense of responsibility. There are still traditional economic-security technocrats in the new Trump administration, but they are just one faction, vying with others – crypto fans, Wall Street boosters, and America Firsters. With this jockeying, as well as President Trump’s social media beefs with other countries, we may be looking at the beginning of a world in which countries disentangle themselves from U.S. dependence at the same time that our machinery of power begins to rust from within.
The Impact on Global Economy
Before they left the White House, Joe Biden’s people clearly hoped to shape the Trump administration’s agenda. Just six days before Mr. Trump was to take office, the Biden administration published a plan for America to command global A.I. This document was the culmination of over two decades of U.S. efforts to use technological and economic chokeholds to build enduring American power, and it laid out an intricate plan for cementing U.S. control over cutting-edge A.I.
The Rise of Cryptocurrency and its Impact
But then Mr. Trump displayed his own approach to policy and global affairs. Colombia is one of America’s closest Latin American allies. When it refused to accept two military planes of deportees, Mr. Trump announced that he would impose full "Treasury, banking, and financial" sanctions as well as 50 percent tariffs on all Colombian products within a week. Colombia’s president responded with his own online tirade. A face-saving compromise ended the spat. Out was the decades-in-the-making policy understanding; in was a 190-word post on Truth Social.
The Future of Economic Security
Other countries will certainly have paid attention. In the short term, they may be more willing to give Mr. Trump what he wants. In the longer run, they will have every reason to pull away from an America that seems willing to crush an ally’s economy on a whim. Mr. Trump’s bluster seemed more like 19th-century gunboat diplomacy than strategic calculation.
Conclusion
The problem isn’t just that Mr. Trump ricochets through policy positions like a ball on a roulette wheel. It’s that his administration is set to become a casino where crypto gamblers, tech oligarchs, and Wall Street opportunists compete for influence. U.S. policy will then depend on which pocket on the wheel Mr. Trump comes to rest. These different factions have different understandings of America’s interests. Should the nation rely on crypto technologies that were designed to resist government control? Should it loosen or strengthen restrictions on the export of A.I. and semiconductors? Should it strike convenient bargains with wealthy autocratic regimes?
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What is the current state of America’s economic security?
A: The United States has built an unprecedented arsenal of economic security tools over the past two decades, but the current administration is set to disrupt this structure.
Q: What are the implications of this disruption?
A: The disruption could lead to a world in which countries disentangle themselves from U.S. dependence and the erosion of the markets that underpin U.S. strength.
Q: What are the key factions in the Trump administration?
A: There are traditional economic-security technocrats, crypto fans, Wall Street boosters, and America Firsters, each with their own interests and agendas.
Q: What is the impact of cryptocurrency on the global economy?
A: Cryptocurrency makes it easy for rogue states to move money across borders and promises that technological decentralization can provide alternatives to government power.
