The Unstoppable Rise of Artificial Intelligence
A Sputnik Moment
China’s tech industry recently stunned the world by unveiling DeepSeek, an artificial intelligence model that rivals the best in the US, but at a fraction of the cost. The development has sparked a frenzy of attempts to understand how they achieved this feat, and whether it was done above board. However, these questions miss the point.
The Futility of Containment
The real lesson of DeepSeek is that America’s approach to AI safety and regulations was misguided. It was never possible to contain the spread of this powerful technology, and certainly not by placing trade restrictions on components like graphics chips. This was a self-serving fiction, foisted on out-of-touch leaders by an industry that wanted the government to kneecap its competitors.
The Shift to Preparation
Instead of futilely trying to keep this genie bottled up, the government and industry should be preparing society for the sweeping changes that are soon to come. The misguided focus on containment is a belated echo of the nuclear age, when the US and others limited the spread of atomic bombs by restricting access to enriched uranium and sending inspectors into labs and military bases. Those measures, backed up by the occasional show of force, had a clear effect. The world hasn’t blown up – yet.
The Key Differences
One crucial difference is that nuclear weapons could have been developed only by a few specialized scientists at the leading edge of their fields. The core idea that powers the AI revolution, on the other hand, has been around since the 1940s. What opened the floodgates was the arrival of vast data sets (via the internet and other digital technologies) and powerful graphic processors (like those from Nvidia), which can compute AI models from those data troves.
The Replicability of AI Models
Another difference: each nuclear weapon has to be constructed from steel and fissile material. Some AI models, on the other hand, can fit on a USB stick and can be endlessly replicated and built upon just by plugging that stick into new laptops.
The Rise of Replicable AI
Initially, developing a new model, like ChatGPT, is a costly process, but it’s the output, known as the model weights, that are so valuable and replicable. Companies like OpenAI, which has loudly proclaimed that AI poses an existential threat to humanity, kept these model weights to themselves, lest others piggyback on all that expensive development work to produce something even more powerful.
The Real Turning Point
The real turning point is not the development of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), but A.G.E. (Artificial Good-Enough Intelligence) – the point at which AI becomes fast, cheap, scalable, and useful for a wide range of purposes. This is the point at which the genie is out of the bottle, and it’s time to engage with what’s happening now.
The Way Forward
Many observers have described this as a Sputnik moment, but that’s incorrect. America can’t re-establish its dominance over the most advanced AI, because the technology, data, and expertise that created it are already distributed around the world. The best way this country can position itself for the new age is to prepare for its impact.
Conclusion
The rise of AI is unstoppable, and it’s time to stop trying to contain it and start preparing for its consequences. It’s time to harden our networked infrastructure, think clearly about how corporations and governments could use AI to entrench their dominance, erode our rights, and worsen inequality, and consider what rights will be threatened and which institutions will need to be rebuilt.
FAQs
Q: How did DeepSeek achieve its feat?
A: The exact methods used by DeepSeek to develop its AI model are not publicly known.
Q: Is OpenAI’s claim that AI poses an existential threat to humanity credible?
A: Some experts have questioned the validity of OpenAI’s claims, while others see it as a legitimate concern.
Q: What is the difference between AGI and A.G.E.?
A: AGI refers to Artificial General Intelligence, while A.G.E. (Artificial Good-Enough Intelligence) refers to the point at which AI becomes fast, cheap, scalable, and useful for a wide range of purposes.
Q: What are the potential consequences of widespread AI adoption?
A: The consequences of widespread AI adoption could include increased job displacement, decreased human interaction, and the erosion of individual freedoms.
