Russia’s AI Gap: A Strategic Enabler for Its Military
Russia’s AI Challenge
Vladimir Putin does not use the internet, according to a Russian intelligence officer who defected. Nor does he have a smartphone. A decade ago, he made the people in his inner circle use typewriters. In this context, it shouldn’t be surprising that Russia has fallen so far behind on artificial intelligence.
The Factors Contributing to the Gap
Global sanctions have also prevented the country from developing a domestic AI sector. Radio Free Europe recently reported that Sberbank — Russia’s majority state-owned financial services giant — has only been able to procure 9,000 graphics processing units since Russia began a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 (Microsoft bought almost 500,000 last year). Russia has new trade partners, but not ones with access to large quantities of advanced semiconductors. Compounding the problem, it has lost about 10 per cent of its tech workforce to emigration since 2022.
The Consequences of the Gap
As a result of these factors, Russia is ranked 31st in the world in AI capacity by Tortoise Media’s Global AI Index, behind every major economy and even small countries like Portugal, Norway, Ireland, and Luxembourg.
The Need for Change
The country has a strong incentive to boost its capabilities. If Putin wants to extend online censorship to AI, it will need even more compute, which means more chips. It will also need access to more advanced chips as AI changes the nature of warfare.
A Strategy for the West
To address the AI gap, Ukraine’s allies must convince the Trump administration to take chips off the table in any negotiations that take place between Russia and the US. Some form of sanctions relief seems inevitable, but sanctions on semiconductors must remain in effect.
Encouraging Emigration and Internal Change
Second, Ukraine’s allies should encourage further emigration from Russia’s tech sector. Visa schemes could be set up to facilitate the flight of AI-literate graduates from Russia to the west. Lastly, Russia’s AI trajectory should be communicated to anti-Putin individuals within the Russian regime. If people around Putin can be convinced of the seismic scale of his AI blunder, discontent could grow — perhaps even to the point of destabilization.
Conclusion
Russia is using 20th-century tactics in pursuit of a 19th-century goal while the 21st century is passing it by. If AI becomes a strategic enabler, Russia’s odds of becoming a modern great power will fall. In Ukraine, Putin may hold the cards, but he’s low on chips.
FAQs
Q: What is the current state of Russia’s AI capabilities?
A: Russia is ranked 31st in the world in AI capacity by Tortoise Media’s Global AI Index, behind every major economy and even small countries like Portugal, Norway, Ireland, and Luxembourg.
Q: Why is Russia struggling to develop its AI sector?
A: Global sanctions and a lack of access to advanced semiconductors have prevented Russia from developing a domestic AI sector.
Q: What is the potential strategy for the West to address Russia’s AI gap?
A: Ukraine’s allies could convince the Trump administration to take chips off the table in any negotiations that take place between Russia and the US. Some form of sanctions relief seems inevitable, but sanctions on semiconductors must remain in effect.
