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The Quest for Artificial General Intelligence
Any company, like OpenAI, which has lost $5 billion last year on $3.7 billion of revenue, needs a compelling story to keep the funding flowing. And stories don’t come much more compelling than saying your company is on the cusp of transforming the world and creating a "glorious future" by developing artificial general intelligence.
What is Artificial General Intelligence?
Definitions vary about what AGI means, given that it represents a theoretical rather than a technological threshold. But most AI researchers would say it is the point at which machine intelligence surpasses human intelligence across most cognitive fields. Attaining AGI is the industry’s holy grail and the explicit mission of companies such as OpenAI and Google DeepMind, even though some holdouts still doubt it will ever be achieved.
The Striking Progress in the Industry
Most predictions of when we might reach AGI have been drawing nearer due to the striking progress in the industry. Even so, Sam Altman, OpenAI’s chief executive, startled many on Monday when he posted on his blog: "We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it." The company, which triggered the latest investment frenzy in AI after launching its ChatGPT chatbot in November 2022, was valued at $150 billion in October. ChatGPT now has more than 300 million weekly users.
Skepticism and Criticism
There are several reasons to be skeptical about Altman’s claim that AGI is essentially a solved problem. OpenAI’s most persistent critic, the AI researcher Gary Marcus, was quick off the mark. "We are now confident that we can spin bullshit at unprecedented levels, and get away with it," Marcus tweeted, parodying Altman’s statement. In a separate post, Marcus repeated his assertion that "there is zero justification for claiming that the current technology has achieved general intelligence", citing its lack of reasoning power, understanding, and reliability.
The Industry’s Holy Grail
But OpenAI’s extraordinary valuation seemingly assumes that Altman may be right. In his post, he suggested that AGI should be seen more as a process towards achieving superintelligence than an end point. Still, if the threshold ever were crossed, AGI would probably count as the biggest event of the century. Even the sun god of news that is Donald Trump would be eclipsed.
The Concerns and Debates
Investors reckon that a world in which machines become smarter than humans in most fields would generate phenomenal wealth for their creators. Used wisely, AGI could accelerate scientific discovery and help us become vastly more productive. But super-powerful AI also carries concerns: excessive concentration of corporate power and possibly existential risk.
The Future of AI: Agentic AI
Diverting though these debates may be, they remain theoretical, and from an investment perspective unknowable. But OpenAI suggests that enormous value can still be derived from applying increasingly powerful but narrow AI systems to a widening number of real-world uses. The industry phrase of the year is agentic AI, using digital assistants to achieve specific tasks. Speaking at the CES event in Las Vegas this week, Jensen Huang, chief executive of chip designer Nvidia, defined agentic AI as systems that can "perceive, reason, plan, and act".
Conclusion
The returns from AI will also have to be spectacular to justify the colossal investments being made by the big tech companies and VC firms. How long will impatient investors hold their nerve?
FAQs
Q: What is artificial general intelligence?
A: Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is the point at which machine intelligence surpasses human intelligence across most cognitive fields.
Q: Is AGI a solved problem?
A: There are several reasons to be skeptical about the claim that AGI is essentially a solved problem, including the lack of reasoning power, understanding, and reliability of current technology.
Q: What is agentic AI?
A: Agentic AI is the use of digital assistants to achieve specific tasks, such as perceiving, reasoning, planning, and acting.
Q: What are the concerns surrounding AGI?
A: The concerns surrounding AGI include the potential for excessive concentration of corporate power and possibly existential risk.
