The AI Landscape in 2025: A Shift from Big to Useful
The Start of a New Era
In the new year, the AI landscape is expected to change dramatically. With the frantic competition between OpenAI, Google, Meta, and Anthropic to create brainier and deeper "frontier" foundation models, I predict that the focus will shift from building bigger models to making them useful to a wider audience.
The Fatigue with AI Hype
People are tired of hearing about the transformative power of AI without seeing significant changes in their daily lives. The constant stream of press releases about advanced reasoning and increased token capabilities has lost its luster. The question is no longer "How powerful are AI models?" but "How can AI models make a meaningful impact on my life?"
DeepSeek and the Rise of Commodity AI
The Chinese AI model, DeepSeek, has emerged, allegedly matching the capabilities of top models at a fraction of the training costs. This has lowered the barriers to entry for AI, making it a commodity. Pundits are predicting that LLMs will become high-value commodities, and my initial thesis has already been vindicated.
The Future of AI
While the billions of dollars and countless gigawatts spent on bigger models may lead to earth-shattering leaps in technology, the real excitement lies in the scramble to produce apps that make even skeptics admit that generative AI is a big deal. Steve Jang, a VC with a lot of skin in the AI game, agrees that DeepSeek is accelerating the commoditization of the high-value LLM model lab world.
The Rise of Substantial Products
The industry is moving away from thin wrappers around AI models and towards creating unique products that utilize these models. The question is no longer "Are you a thin wrapper around AI?" but "Are you doing something truly unique while using AI models at your core?"
Conclusion
The AI landscape in 2025 will be marked by a shift from building bigger models to making them useful to a wider audience. The opportunity is there for innovators to seize, and the products we’ve seen so far have barely scratched the surface of what’s possible. As Josh Woodward, head of Google Labs, says, "If you just hit pause on everything, we probably have five to 10 years’ worth of capabilities we could turn into new products."
FAQs
Q: What is the author’s prediction for the AI landscape in 2025?
A: The author predicts that the focus will shift from building bigger models to making them useful to a wider audience.
Q: What is DeepSeek, and how does it impact the AI market?
A: DeepSeek is a Chinese AI model that matches the capabilities of top models at a fraction of the training costs, lowering the barriers to entry for AI and making it a commodity.
Q: What is the shift from in the AI industry?
A: The shift is from thin wrappers around AI models to creating unique products that utilize these models.
Q: What does the future hold for AI?
A: The future holds the potential for innovative products that make generative AI a big deal, going beyond the hype and making a meaningful impact on people’s lives.
