The Coming Era of Artificial General Intelligence
The Warning from Ben Buchanan
For the past couple of months, I’ve been having this strange experience where person after person, independent of each other, from AI labs, from government, have been coming to me and saying, "It’s really about to happen. Artificial general intelligence, AGI, is coming soon."
AGI: The Holy Grail of AI
Artificial general intelligence, AGI, is the Holy Grail of AI. It’s a system that is better than almost all humans at almost all tasks. And before, people thought it would take five or 10 years, 10 or 15 years. Now, they believe it’s coming inside of 2 to 3 years.
Preparing for the Impact
We’re not prepared for the impact of AGI. We don’t know how labor markets will respond. We don’t know which country will get there first. We don’t know what it will mean for war. We don’t know what it’ll mean for peace. And as much as there is so much else going on in the world to cover, I do think that when we look back on this era in human history, this will have been the thing that matters. This will have been the event horizon. The thing that the world before it and the world after it were just different worlds.
The Biden Administration’s Warning
I recently spoke with Ben Buchanan, the former special advisor for artificial intelligence in the Biden White House. He was at the nerve center of what policy we have been making in recent years, but there’s now been a profound changeover in administrations. And the new administration has a lot of people with very, very, very strong views on AI.
The Capabilities of AGI
Ben Buchanan warned, "I think we’ll see extraordinarily capable AI systems. I don’t love the term artificial general intelligence, but I think that will fit in the next couple of years, quite likely. During Donald Trump’s presidency, and I think one of the things I saw in the White House when I was decidedly not in a corporate position was trend lines that looked very clear. And what we tried to do under the president’s leadership was get the US government and our society ready for these systems before we get into what it would mean to get ready."
The Breadth and Depth of AGI
Ben explained that the canonical definition of AGI is a system capable of doing almost any cognitive task a human can do. "I don’t know that we’ll quite see that in the next four years or so, but I do think we’ll see something like that where the breadth of the system is remarkable, but also its depth, its capacity to go and really push in some cases exceed human capabilities, kind of regardless of the cognitive discipline."
The Impact on Labor Markets
Ben also discussed the impact on labor markets. "I’m pretty convinced we’re on the cusp of this. I’m not coming at this as a skeptic, but I still find it hard to mentally live in the world of IT. So I use deep research recently, which is a new OpenAI product. It’s on their more pricey tier. So most people, I think, have not used it, but it can build out something that’s more like a scientific analytical brief in a matter of minutes. And I work with producers on the show. I hire incredibly talented people to do very demanding research work, and I asked it to do this report on the tensions between the Madisonian constitutional system and the highly polarized nationalized parties we now have, and what it produced in a matter of minutes was, I would at least say the median of what any of the teams I’ve worked with on this could produce within days."
The Future of Work
Ben concluded, "I think that’s right. I’m not a labor market economist, but I think that the systems are extraordinarily capable in some ways. I’m very fond of the quote from William Gibson. The future is already here. It’s just unevenly distributed. And I think unless you are engaging with this technology, you probably don’t appreciate how good it is today. And then it’s important to recognize today is the worst it’s ever going to be. It’s only going to get better."
Conclusion
The coming era of AGI is a game-changer. It’s a technology that has the potential to revolutionize the way we live and work. But it also poses significant challenges for society, including the potential for job displacement and the need for new forms of education and training.
FAQs
Q: What is AGI?
A: AGI stands for Artificial General Intelligence, which is a system that is better than almost all humans at almost all tasks.
Q: When will AGI arrive?
A: According to Ben Buchanan, it’s likely to arrive within the next 2-3 years.
Q: What are the potential impacts of AGI on labor markets?
A: AGI has the potential to displace jobs and change the way we work. It’s too early to predict exactly how it will impact labor markets, but experts believe it will have a significant impact.
Q: What are the next steps for policymakers?
A: Policymakers will need to address the potential impacts of AGI on labor markets, as well as the potential for job displacement and the need for new forms of education and training.
