The Rise of Artificial General Intelligence: A New Era for Humanity
Introduction
For the past couple of months, I’ve been having a strange experience where person after person, from AI labs to government, has been coming to me and saying, "It’s really about to happen. Artificial general intelligence, AGI, is the Holy Grail of AI. AI systems that are better than almost all humans at almost all tasks. And before they thought, maybe take 5 or 10 years, 10 or 15 years. Now they believe it’s coming inside of 2 to 3 years."
The Fears and Concerns
A lot of people don’t realize that AI is going to be a big thing during Donald Trump’s second term. And I think they’re right. And we’re not prepared, in part because it’s not clear what it would mean to prepare. We don’t know how labor markets will respond. We don’t know which country will get there first. We don’t know what it will mean for war. We don’t know what it’ll mean for peace. And as much as there is so much else going on in the world to cover, I do think there’s a good chance that when we look back on this era in human history, this will have been the thing that matters. This will have been the event horizon. The thing that the world before it and the world after it were just different worlds.
The Experts’ Opinions
One of the people who reached out to me was Ben Buchanan, who was the former special advisor for artificial intelligence in the Biden White House. He was at the nerve center of what policy we have been making in recent years, but there’s now been a profound changeover in administrations. And the new administration has a lot of people with very, very, very strong views on AI. So what are they going to do? What kinds of decisions are going to need to be made, and what kinds of thinking do we need to start doing now to be prepared for something that virtually everybody who works in this area is trying to tell us as loudly as they possibly can, is coming?
The Potential Impact
According to Ben, we’re going to see extraordinarily capable AI systems. "I don’t love the term artificial general intelligence, but I think that will fit in the next couple of years, quite likely. During Donald Trump’s presidency, and I think there’s a view that this has always been something of corporate hype or speculation. And I think one of the things I saw in the White House when I was decidedly not in a corporate position was trend lines that looked very clear. And what we tried to do under the president’s leadership was get the US government and our society ready for these systems before we get into what it would mean to get ready."
The Labor Market Impact
Ben also emphasized the potential impact on the labor market, stating, "I think that’s right. I’m not a labor market economist, but I think that the systems are extraordinarily capable in some ways. I’m very fond of the quote from William Gibson. The future is already here. It’s just unevenly distributed. And I think unless you are engaging with this technology, you probably don’t appreciate how good it is today. And then it’s important to recognize today is the worst it’s ever going to be. It’s only going to get better."
The Policy Debate
Ben also expressed his frustration with the policy debate around AI, stating, "I think there should be an intellectual humility about before you take a policy action, you have to have some understanding of what it is you’re doing and why. So I think it is entirely intellectually consistent to look at a transformative technology, draw the lines on the graph and say, this is coming pretty soon without having the 14-point plan of this is what we need to do in 2027 or 2028."
Conclusion
As the world prepares for the coming of artificial general intelligence, it’s essential to recognize the potential impact it will have on the labor market, national security, and our daily lives. It’s also crucial to acknowledge the uncertainty surrounding the future of AI policy and the decisions that will need to be made in the next couple of years.
FAQs
Q: What is artificial general intelligence (AGI)?
A: AGI refers to AI systems that are better than almost all humans at almost all tasks.
Q: When is AGI expected to arrive?
A: According to experts, AGI is expected to arrive within the next 2-3 years.
Q: What are the potential impacts of AGI?
A: The potential impacts of AGI include changes to the labor market, national security, and our daily lives.
Q: What is the policy debate around AI?
A: The policy debate around AI is focused on the potential implications of AGI and how to prepare for its arrival.
